Saturday, August 25, 2012

Brad DeLong: Trying and Failing to Understand Niall Ferguson's ...

For some reason I do not understand, James Fallows and Ta-Nehisi Coates like this from Stephen Marche:

The real issue isn't the substance of Ferguson's argument, though, which is shallow and basically exploded by this point in time. It isn't even the question of how such garbage managed to be written and published. It is, rather, why did Ferguson write it? The answer is simple but has profound implications for American intellectual life generally: public speaking.?

Ferguson's critics have simply misunderstood for whom Ferguson was writing that piece. They imagine that he is working as a professor or as a journalist, and that his standards slipped below those of academia or the media. Neither is right. Look at his speaking agent's Web site. The fee: 50 to 75 grand per appearance. That number means that the entire economics of Ferguson's writing career, and many other writing careers, has been permanently altered. Nonfiction writers can and do make vastly more, and more easily, than they could ever make any other way, including by writing bestselling books or being a Harvard professor. Articles and ideas are only as good as the fees you can get for talking about them. They are merely billboards for the messengers.?

And so does Justin Fox:

Niall Ferguson and the Rage Against the Thought-Leader Machine: So why the firestorm of criticism [of Ferguson]? A lot of it had to do with one little passage about the Affordable Care Act, otherwise known as Obamacare:

The president pledged that health-care reform would not add a cent to the deficit. But the CBO and the Joint Committee on Taxation now estimate that the insurance-coverage provisions of the ACA will have a net cost of close to $1.2 trillion over the 2012-22 period.

What Ferguson left out is that the Congressional Budget Office also said that other provisions of the law (reductions in Medicare spending and increases in taxes) will more than make up for that cost, resulting in a net reduction in the deficit. His wording was clearly misleading: Obama's "health-care reform" included both the insurance-coverage provisions and the other provisions.

When Princeton economist and frequent Ferguson sparring partner Paul Krugman pointed this out, Ferguson could have easily said something like Oops, I worded that poorly. But the point stands that increasing health coverage is going to cost a lot. Instead, he doubled down and argued that because he'd written "insurance-cost provisions" he'd been entirely correct. Along the way, he again selectively quoted from the CBO in a way that completely misrepresented the meaning of the passage he cited. Which was when the piling on really began?.

[P]eople like Business Insider's Joe Weisenthal, Politico's Dylan Byers, and Slate's Dave Weigel who had no political axe to grind? were flabbergasted at Ferguson's sheer shamelessness. These are all leading members of a rising digital media elite, closely connected via social media, who are pretty sure their peers and readers would never let them get away with nonsense like that.

Which is where my thought leader idea comes in. Ferguson is a great financial historian ? his history of the Rothschild family is brilliant. In recent years he's become more of a generalist, and has focused more on current events. That's not a bad thing?. But Ferguson has been so good at it?. Stephen Marche pointed out on Esquire.com? [that] conference organizers? pay Ferguson $50,000 to $75,000 to entertain and edify a hotel ballroom full of business types about "Chimerica" or "the six killer apps of Western civilization."

That's the link with Lehrer and Zakaria, who are (or probably were, in Lehrer's case) big on the speaking circuit as well?. The path to lucrative thought-leaderdom blazed over the past couple of decades was to establish yourself with dense, serious work (or a big, important job) and then move on to catch-phrase manufacturing (I spent a few weeks following Tom Friedman around in 2005, and learned that he had made this transition very deliberately). Nowadays ambitious young people looking to break into the circuit often just aim straight for the catch-phrases. Speakers bureaus need pithy sales pitches, not complex erudition ? and while speaking fees might be spare change for Mitt Romney, for journalists and academics they often represent their only real shot at a top-tax-bracket income.

The result is an intellectual environment that seems to increasingly reward the superficial, and keeps rewarding those who make it into the magic circle of top-flight speakers even if they don't have anything new or interesting to say. Or at least: a part of the intellectual environment is like that. There's also a lively, seemingly much more meritocratic intellectual scene in the blogosphere and on Twitter. "The growth of online venues," wrote blogger and international relations scholar Daniel W. Drezner in a journal article in 2008 "has stimulated rather than retarded the quality and diversity of public intellectuals."

Where things get combustible is when the two scenes collide ? when speaker's-bureau pundits get called out online for misdeeds, errors, or just inanities?. [I]t's fair to say that our thought leaders have as a group done a disastrously poor job of leading our thoughts over the past decade, so some kind of shake up is in order.

My impression was that at Ferguson's level of this--not at mine--there are many, many more groups of people that want you to come speak than you could possibly accept and still get anything done, and so you reject every invitation to travel and speak that comes along unless it (a) advances your broader personal intellectual agenda, or (b) comes with so much money attached that you would feel guilty and like a foolish schmuck for turning it down. Niall's current feel-guilty-and-like-a-foolish-schmuck level appears to be $50K.

But it is, IMHO, highly, highly unlikely that he is crafting his print message in order to try to raise that level from $50K to $100K.

More important, chopping off 2/3 of a sentence from a CBO report so that you can claim it says something very different than it actually says is not a way to boost your feel-guilty-and-like-a-foolish-schmuck level.

It's a way to get your peers to shift from saying "he is highly entertaining and has a definite point of view that will wake you up" to "he will tell you some things that just aren't so: you can use your money better on somebody else".

Contrary to what Stephen Marche says, this kind of misrepresentation is not a good career move on Ferguson's part--not even with the shortest-run speaking-fee-maximization definition of "career"?

Source: http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/08/failing-to-decode-niall-fergusons-behavior.html

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Friday, August 24, 2012

Video: Shooting at Empire State

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Source: http://video.msnbc.msn.com/cnbc/48783506/

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The Socially Awkward Yet Underrated Mitt Romney (Atlantic Politics Channel)

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Insurance News - Health Insurance Executives Arrested For Hiding ...

TALLAHASSEE, Fla., Aug. 22 -- The Florida Department of Financial Services issued the following news release:

Florida Chief Financial Officer Jeff Atwater announced today the arrest of Sabiha Haider Khan, 37, and Nazeer Haider Khan, 40, executives of Quality Health Plans, Inc., located in Tampa, for intentionally filing misleading information to the Office of Insurance Regulation to conceal the financial instability of the company and placing policyholders at risk.

"When insurance companies choose not to play by the rules they put their policyholders and all Floridians at risk for their own personal gain," CFO Atwater said. "I am proud of the diligent efforts of our fraud investigators and the work of OIR in holding companies accountable for their actions and protecting the citizens of Florida."

An investigation by the Florida Department of Financial Services' Division of Insurance Fraud was initiated after the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation received misleading financial reports filed by executives of Quality Health Plans, Inc (QHP). The investigation alleges that Sabiha Khan, CEO, and Nazeer Khan, Vice President, used misleading financial statements to prolong the appearance of financial stability to allow QHP to reap financial benefits when the company had long been insolvent and did not have required assets on hand to pay claims. In December 2011, QHP was court-ordered into liquidation, which revealed executives concealed a $5 million asset which had been collateralized for a loan at Herald National Bank in New York.

Khan and Khan were booked into Leon County jail. They are charged with 13 counts of first degree felonies and, if convicted, they each face up to 30 years in prison.

All health care coverage with QHP was cancelled as of the date of liquidation, December 1, 2011. Consumers can find more information on the QHP liquidation process here.http://www.myfloridacfo.com/receiver/QHP/coverage_info.htm

Anyone with information about these or any other incidents of suspected insurance fraud is asked to call 1-800-378-0445. Citizens who provide tips can remain anonymous. The Department of Financial Services to date has awarded almost $275,000 to more than 40 citizens as part of its Anti-Fraud Reward Program. The program rewards individuals up to $25,000 for information that directly leads to an arrest and conviction in an insurance fraud scheme.

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Copyright: (c) 2012 Targeted News Service
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Source: http://insurancenewsnet.com/article.aspx?id=355059&type=lifehealth

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Thursday, August 23, 2012

Some Essential Ways To Raise Personal Development - Consumer ...

Whether or not you have contemplated your specific purpose in daily life, made an effort to deepen or develop your faith based improvement, or searched for to further improve your own self understanding, chances are very good that sooner or later in your life that you have made an effort to additional your own personal improvement. The mission to greater oneself is apparently natural in mankind.

Set up a new personalized goal at this time: take steps that scares you in the near future. This doesn?t should be massive, so don?t concern yourself with eliminating an ongoing the fear of spiders immediately. Just select a small danger, strategy a time, and carry it if the possibility arises. You will probably find that your bravery makes sense!

Learn to go through people and information. In your modern society, advertisement is everywhere. Learn how to understand this type of discourse. The very next time a professional causes you to feel inferior, it is possible to identify these feelings as artificial. Unfortunately, certain people go through daily life not acknowledging this. Learn how to acknowledge many people and decipher their discourses also.

Be responsible for your own lifestyle. If you aren?t where by you need to remain in daily life, you can easily pin the blame on other folks. You may believe that your folks let you down, your teachers weren?t sufficient, your boss had it set for you or which you didn?t have as numerous benefits as somebody else. The fact is, your options and steps have obtained you to the stage your location nowadays. The best way to make changes is to end blaming other individuals, and assume responsibility for your opinions, actions and triumphs. Only then are you gonna be fully in control of your very own life.

Use mistakes as growing things. Everyone will make faults from time to time, regardless of whether critical or quite minor. Either way you go, you will need to realize that these faults are occasionally unavoidable, and the greatest thing you can do is learn and expand from these errors, using them to move on your own frontward rather than allowing them to maintain you back in disappointment and discouragement.

When you are searching for inspiration, use positive affirmations. Positive positive affirmations ? like ?I can do that!? ? help a lot of people to find the quick inspiration that they will need. These help you to sense comfortable in a position to accomplish a lot more and develop as an individual. Use beneficial affirmations to help keep you focused all the way.

A great self-help hint which can help you improve your lifestyle is to find a pet. Acquiring a cat or even a dog can do wonders for yourself levels of stress. The simple act of petting a pet dog can greatly reduce your worries. Possessing a dog is helpful for you and for them.

Reading this short article you need to feel far more prepared for increasing your individual well worth via improvement. Use this assistance within your regular life and you will definitely easily view your productivity increasing. This is often used just as much to your private lifestyle as it could for your skilled daily life.

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Source: http://blog.ilove3c.com/2012/08/22/some-essential-ways-to-raise-personal-development/

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Thursday?s Political Ledes (TIME)

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Re-investing Stocks to Increase Profit | Pinoy Technologies

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Stock options can be an excellent investment, especially if your employer uses stock option grants to reward worker excellence. Even so, it is important for workers who do receive stock option grants to diversify their capitals from period of time. Several workers end up with a large stake in their company?s stock and that lack of diversification puts them at risk in the event the firm?s fortunes turn sour. Compelling the time to diversify your holdings by selling your stock options and reinvesting the funds can limit your exposure and your tax bill.

Six Guidelines:

1. Evaluate your potential capital gains by comparing the strike price of the stock option to the current selling price. For instance, if the strike price, i.e., the price you pay to buy the stock, is $10 and the existing selling price is $20; your potential capital gain would be $10 per share. Increase this $10 by the number of stock options you own to arrive at your potential capital advance.

2.?Communicate the brokerage firm that holds your stock options and inform them that you want to sell your options. Ask the company to either transfer the funds to your main brokerage account or send you a payment.

3.?Save the tax funds in a safe vehicle like a savings account or money market fund. This will ensure that the money is there when you need it to pay your duties.

4.?Choose what type of investment you want to diversify into. If you want to decrease the risks associated with investing in a only stock, consider reinvesting your stock option profits into government bonds or a certificate of deposit from your group.

5.?Usual money aside for the taxes you may owe. Using commercial tax preparation software set is one of the best ways to estimate your money gains liability. If you take not to use such a program, set aside one third of the proceeds from the stock option sale for taxes just to be on the safe side. Any money left over can be reinvested after you file your duties.

6.?Contact the mutual fund company where you will be placing your stock option proceeds. Teach the company to purchase the funds you wish to invest in. If you idea to purchase a bank CD, take the check from the proceeds of the stock option grant to the bank with you.

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Source: http://www.pinoytechnologies.com/re-investing-stocks-to-increase-profit/

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